Aproximación teórica a las tecnologías digitales de servicios públicos en territorios fronterizos y periféricos

[ES] El taller sobre Tecnologías Disruptivas de la Información y la Comunicación para la Innovación y la Transformación Digital, organizado en el ámbito del proyecto DISRUPTIVE (disruptive.usal.es) y celebrado el 12 de septiembre de 2022 en Valladolid, tiene como objetivo debatir sobre los problemas, retos y beneficios del uso de tecnologías digitales disruptivas, a saber, Internet de las Cosas, Big data, computación en la nube, sistemas multiagente, aprendizaje automático, realidad virtual y aumentada y robótica colaborativa, para apoyar la transformación digital en curso en la sociedad. El programa del taller incluyó 6 papers técnicos aceptados, 2 charlas de invitados y una sesión de networking. Este volumen contiene 6 de las ponencias presentadas en el taller sobre Tecnologías Disruptivas de la Información y la Comunicación para la Innovación y la Transformación Digital. Este taller fue organizado por ICE (Instituto para la Competitividad Empresarial de Castilla y León), UVa (Universidad de Valladolid) y apoyado principalmente por el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) a través del Programa Interreg España-Portugal V-A (POCTEP) bajo la subvención 0677_DISRUPTIVE_2_E (Dinamización de los Digital Innovation Hubs dentro de la región PocTep para el impulso de las TIC disruptivas y de última generación a través de la cooperación en la región transfronteriza).[EN] The workshop on Disruptive Information and Communication Technologies for Innovation and Digital transformation, organized under the scope of the DISRUPTIVE project (disruptive.usal.es) and held on September 12, 2022 in Valladolid, aims to discuss problems, challenges and benefits of using disruptive digital technologies, namely Internet of Things, Big data, cloud computing, multi-agent systems, machine learning, virtual and augmented reality, and collaborative robotics, to support the on-going digital transformation in society. The main topics included: Intelligent Manufacturing Systems; Industry 4.0 and digital transformation; Internet of Things; Cyber-security; Collaborative and intelligent robotics; Multi-Agent Systems; Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems; Virtualization and digital twins; Predictive maintenance; Virtual and augmented reality, Big Data and advanced data analytics; Edge and cloud Computing; Digital Transformation. The workshop program included 6 accepted technical papers, 2 invited talks and a networking session. This volume contains 6 of the papers presented at the Workshop on Disruptive Information and Communication Technologies for Innovation and Digital Transformation. This workshop was organized by ICE (Institute for Business Competitiveness of Castilla y León), UVa (University of Valladolid) and mainly supported by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Interreg Spain-Portugal V-A Program (POCTEP) under grant 0677_DISRUPTIVE_2_E (Intensifying the activity of Digital Innovation Hubs within the PocTep region to boost the development of disruptive and last generation ICTs through cross-border cooperation)

Breve repaso a los enfoques y metodologías de los Sistemas Multiagente

[ES] El intercambio de ideas entre científicos y técnicos, tanto del ámbito académico como empresarial, es fundamental para facilitar el desarrollo de sistemas que puedan satisfacer las demandas de la sociedad actual. La transferencia de tecnología en este campo sigue siendo un reto y, por ello, este tipo de aportaciones se consideran de forma destacada en esta recopilación. Este libro trae debates y publicaciones sobre el desarrollo de técnicas innovadoras de problemas complejos de IoT. El programa técnico se centra tanto en la alta calidad como en la diversidad, con contribuciones en áreas de investigación bien establecidas y en evolución. Específicamente, 10 capítulos fueron presentados a este libro. Los editores alentaron y agradecieron particularmente las contribuciones sobre IA y computación distribuida en aplicaciones de IoT. Los editores agradecen especialmente el apoyo financiero del proyecto “Virtual-Ledgers-Tecnologías DLT/Blockchain y Cripto-IOT sobre organizaciones virtuales de agentes ligeros y su aplicación en la eficiencia en el transporte de última milla”, ID SA267P18, financiado por Junta de Castilla y León y fondos FEDER.[EN] The exchange of ideas between scientists and technicians, from both academic and business areas, is essential in order to ease the development of systems which can meet the demands of today’s society. Technology transfer in this field is still a challenge and, for that reason, this type of contributions are notably considered in this compilation. This book brings in discussions and publications concerning the development of innovative techniques of IoT complex problems. The technical program focuses both on high quality and diversity, with contributions in well-established and evolving areas of research. Specifically, 10 chapters were submitted to this book. The editors particularly encouraged and welcomed contributions on AI and distributed computing in IoT applications. The editors are specially grateful for the funding supporting by the project “Virtual-Ledgers-Tecnologías DLT/Blockchain y Cripto-IOT sobre organizaciones virtuales de agentes ligeros y su aplicación en la eficiencia en el transporte de última milla”, ID SA267P18, financed by regional government of Castilla y León and FEDER funds

III Workshop on disruptive information and communication technologies for innovation and digital transformation

Producción CientíficaCon la aparición de tecnologías disruptivas como Internet de las Cosas (IoT), Industria 4.0 o Realidad Virtual (VR), entre otras, cada vez hay más servicios y dispositivos con diferentes características que se interconectan mediante redes de comunicaciones y necesitan capacidades de computación y almacenamiento con las que, en principio, no cuentan. Para superar este problema se propuso la solución de computación en la nube (cloud computing), que consiste básicamente en confiar las tareas más pesadas a un servidor central con alta potencia computacional. A primera vista este enfoque resuelve el problema, pero, como generalmente estos servidores centrales (data centers) se encuentran lejos de los dispositivos finales, aparecen nuevos problemas, especialmente con respecto al aumento de la latencia. La siguiente propuesta es el MEC (Multi-access Edge Computing, o computación de acceso múltiple en el borde), que es similar a la computación en la nube, pero se basa en servidores más cercanos a los usuarios, esto es, "en el borde" de la red de acceso, en lugar de servidores lejanos "en la nube". Este artículo ofrece una revisión de las principales características, de MEC, haciendo énfasis en su aplicación en escenarios como muchas regiones hispano-portuguesas, con baja densidad de población, grandes distancias entre ciudades o pueblos, y con un importante porcentaje de entornos rurales.Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional FEDER a través del proyecto DISRUPTIVE del Programa Interreg V-A España-Portugal (POCTEP) 2014-2020Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (grants (ONOFRE-2: TEC2017-84423-C3-1- P and Go2Edge: RED2018-102585-T)Junta de Castilla y León - Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (project VA231P20

2021 International Conference on Optical Network Design and Modeling (ONDM)

Producción CientíficaThe planning of multi-access edge computing (MEC) systems does not only consist in distributing MEC servers among the base stations (BSs) but also in designing the network to interconnect BSs, MEC resources and the wide area network (WAN) gateway. Due to their high bandwidth, fiber links are the best option for those connections in 5G environments. In contrast to previous works, which only solve the server placement problem, in this paper, an integer linear programming (ILP) formulation is proposed for solving both problems while reducing the installation cost (servers and fibers). The fiber deployment cost is especially important in sparsely populated areas as the distance between BSs are much longer than in urban environments. The model was tested using real BSs locations and population data showing that the formulation considerably reduces the installation cost.Interreg V-A Spain-Portugal (POCTEP) programme 2014- 2020 (project 0667_DISRUPTIVE_2_E)Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (projects TEC2017-84423-C3-1-P and RED2018- 102585-T)Junta de Castilla y León - Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (project VA231P20

2022 IEEE International Mediterranean Conference on Communications and Networking (MeditCom)

Producción CientíficaIn Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC) network planning, the main goal is to find the optimal network topology, including the location and dimensioning of MEC data centers (MEC-DC), and the connections between them, with base stations (BSs), and with the wide area network (WAN) gateway for Internet and cloud services. Moreover, the assignment of traffic to the servers must also be solved. When solving that problem, it is especially important to consider the connections if the deployment has to be done in sparsely populated areas with long distances to interconnect and where it is likely to find no adequate infrastructure previously deployed. In a previous paper, we presented an Integer Linear Programming (ILP) formulation that solves that problem assuming straight and dedicated cable ducts between network nodes. However, reusing cables ducts and exploiting space division multiplexing (using different fibers of each cable to reach different nodes) can lead to more cost-effective solutions. Moreover, it is crucial to implement redundancy between MEC-DCs and WAN gateways to provide survivability against failures in this network segment. In this paper, we present a heuristic to improve the result obtained with our previous ILP formulation, assuming shared fiber ducts and cables, and creating a ring topology between MEC-DCs and WAN gateways. Results show that our proposal reduces the total deployment cost, while fulfilling latency constraints of MEC applications and providing fault tolerance.FEDER a través del Programa INTERREG V-A España-Portugal 2014-2020 (0677_DISRUPTIVE_2_E)Consejería de Educación de la Junta de Castilla y León y FEDER (VA231P20)Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación y Agencia Estatal de Investigación (Proyecto PID2020-112675RB-C42 financiado por MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y RED2018-102585-T

2022 32nd International Telecommunication Networks and Applications Conference (ITNAC)

Producción CientíficaThe upcoming Connected and cooperative and automated mobility paradigm (CCAM) requires the deployment of road-side units (RSUs) beside the roads to provide wireless communication to connected-vehicle on board units. The deployment of RSUs along the highways provide low-latency communication, suitable for applications where high-speed response is needed, such as autonomous driving and crash avoidance. These RSUs must be connected to the Internet through a high-bandwidth and reliable access network being the optical fiber technologies the most convenient technology for that. In this paper, we propose a planning scheme for enabling RSUs with optical access networks. The method starts choosing the locations of the access network headers (the connection points to the local service provider facilities), and then defines the connections between the headers and the RSUs in a convenient manner considering the road infrastructure. Then, two deployment technologies based on optical fibers are compared: Point to Point (P2P) and Passive Optical Network (PON). A techno-economic analysis was performed, and results show that P2P and PON approaches are very similar in terms of cost, therefore, due to technical advantages, P2P is recommended as deployment strategy for the described scenario.Consejería de Educación de la Junta de Castilla y León y FEDER (VA231P20)Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación y Agencia Estatal de Investigación (Proyecto PID2020-112675RB-C42 financiado por MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y RED2018-102585-T)FEDER a través del Programa INTERREG V-A España-Portugal 2014-2020 (0677_DISRUPTIVE_2_E

2022 18th International Conference on the Design of Reliable Communication Networks (DRCN)

Producción CientíficaResiliency (fault tolerance) is an important aspect in communication networks: a robust and well-planned network must have a strategy to face equipment failures. The planning of Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC) systems should not only consider computing resources, but also the fiber connections to base stations (BSs) and to the WAN network gateway. This joint design is particularly important in sparsely populated areas (e.g., rural areas), as the distances are much longer than in urban environments. When solving the planning problem for these systems, reserving backup resources for both computing and networks is a must to ensure resiliency. In this paper, we propose and compare different strategies for the planning of resilient MEC networks assuming that there are backup resources for both MEC servers and fibers. The method provides protection against single-fiber failure or single-MEC node failure (with part or all the servers affected). The different approaches are evaluated in terms of cost and propagation delay from BSs to the primary and backup MEC servers. Results show the advantages of using edge technology instead of a centralized design, and they also suggest that is more convenient to jointly plan the main and backup MEC architecture than to deploy the backup resources over an existent infrastructure.FEDER a través del Programa INTERREG V-A España-Portugal 2014-2020 (0677_DISRUPTIVE_2_E)Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación y Agencia Estatal de Investigación (Proyecto PID2020-112675RB-C42 financiado por MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y RED2018-102585-T)Consejería de Educación de la Junta de Castilla y León y FEDER (VA231P20)

Comparativa de estrategias de despliegue de redes MEC en Castilla y León

[ES] El taller sobre Tecnologías Disruptivas de la Información y la Comunicación para la Innovación y la Transformación Digital, organizado en el ámbito del proyecto DISRUPTIVE (disruptive.usal.es) y celebrado el 12 de septiembre de 2022 en Valladolid, tiene como objetivo debatir sobre los problemas, retos y beneficios del uso de tecnologías digitales disruptivas, a saber, Internet de las Cosas, Big data, computación en la nube, sistemas multiagente, aprendizaje automático, realidad virtual y aumentada y robótica colaborativa, para apoyar la transformación digital en curso en la sociedad. El programa del taller incluyó 6 papers técnicos aceptados, 2 charlas de invitados y una sesión de networking. Este volumen contiene 6 de las ponencias presentadas en el taller sobre Tecnologías Disruptivas de la Información y la Comunicación para la Innovación y la Transformación Digital. Este taller fue organizado por ICE (Instituto para la Competitividad Empresarial de Castilla y León), UVa (Universidad de Valladolid) y apoyado principalmente por el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) a través del Programa Interreg España-Portugal V-A (POCTEP) bajo la subvención 0677_DISRUPTIVE_2_E (Dinamización de los Digital Innovation Hubs dentro de la región PocTep para el impulso de las TIC disruptivas y de última generación a través de la cooperación en la región transfronteriza).[EN] The workshop on Disruptive Information and Communication Technologies for Innovation and Digital transformation, organized under the scope of the DISRUPTIVE project (disruptive.usal.es) and held on September 12, 2022 in Valladolid, aims to discuss problems, challenges and benefits of using disruptive digital technologies, namely Internet of Things, Big data, cloud computing, multi-agent systems, machine learning, virtual and augmented reality, and collaborative robotics, to support the on-going digital transformation in society. The main topics included: Intelligent Manufacturing Systems; Industry 4.0 and digital transformation; Internet of Things; Cyber-security; Collaborative and intelligent robotics; Multi-Agent Systems; Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems; Virtualization and digital twins; Predictive maintenance; Virtual and augmented reality, Big Data and advanced data analytics; Edge and cloud Computing; Digital Transformation. The workshop program included 6 accepted technical papers, 2 invited talks and a networking session. This volume contains 6 of the papers presented at the Workshop on Disruptive Information and Communication Technologies for Innovation and Digital Transformation. This workshop was organized by ICE (Institute for Business Competitiveness of Castilla y León), UVa (University of Valladolid) and mainly supported by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Interreg Spain-Portugal V-A Program (POCTEP) under grant 0677_DISRUPTIVE_2_E (Intensifying the activity of Digital Innovation Hubs within the PocTep region to boost the development of disruptive and last generation ICTs through cross-border cooperation)

IV Workshop on Disruptive Information and Communication Technologies for Innovation and Digital Transformation

Producción CientíficaLos nuevos servicios y aplicaciones disruptivas requieren la utilización de redes de comunicaciones de banda ancha. En el segmento de acceso, las redes de acceso ópticas pasivas (PON) se están consolidando como la mejor alternativa para este despliegue dado que las tecnologías de acceso tradicionales (cable coaxial, cobre) ya han dejado de ser capaces de soportar el creciente volumen de tráfico. Sin embargo, el despliegue actual de estas redes PON es muy desigual estando únicamente presentes en las áreas de mayor densidad de población donde el coste por conexión para los operadores se mantiene bajo. En este artículo presentamos una propuesta de política público-privada que permitirá incentivar a los operadores para el despliegue de redes PON en entornos de baja densidad de población (entornos rurales). Para demostrar su eficacia, se presenta un caso de uso en la provincia de Valladolid (Castilla y León, España). Los resultados de este estudio muestran que, gracias a la utilización de la política propuesta, los operadores pueden encontrar atractivo dar un servicio a todos los usuarios y poblaciones que lo deseen.Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional a través del proyecto DISRUPTIVE del Programa Interreg V-A España-Portugal (POCTEP) 2014-2020Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (grants ONOFRE-2: TEC2017-84423-C3-1- P y Go2Edge: RED2018-102585-T)Junta de Castilla y León (project VA231P20

Monetary Policy Report - July de 2021

Macroeconomic summary The Colombian economy sustained numerous shocks in the second quarter, pri¬marily related to costs and supply. The majority of these shocks were unantic¬ipated or proved more persistent than expected, interrupting the recovery in economic activity observed at the beginning of the year and pushing overall inflation above the target. Core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) increased but remained low, in line with the technical staff’s expectations. A third wave of the pandemic, which became more severe and prolonged than the previous outbreak, began in early April. This had both a high cost in terms of human life and a negative impact on Colombia's economic recovery. Between May and mid-June roadblocks and other disruptions to public order had a sig¬nificant negative effect on economic activity and inflation. The combination and magnitude of these two shocks likely led to a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the first quarter. Roadblocks also led to a significant in¬crease in food prices. The accumulated effects of global disruptions to certain value chains and increased international freight transportation prices, which since the end of 2020 have restricted supply and increased costs, also affected Colombia’s economy. The factors described above, which primarily affected the consumer price index (CPI) for goods and foods, explain to a significant degree the technical staff’s forecast errors and the increase in overall inflation above the 3% target. By contrast, increases in core inflation and in prices for regulated items were in line with the technical staff’s expectations, and can be explained largely by the elimination of various price relief measures put in place last year. An increase in perceived sovereign risk and the upward pressures that this im¬plies on international financing costs and the exchange rate were further con¬siderations. Despite significant negative shocks, economic growth in the first half of the year (9.1%) is now expected to be significantly higher than projected in the April re¬port (7.1%), a sign of a more dynamic economy that could recover more quickly than previously forecast. Diverse economic activity figures have indicated high¬er-than-expected growth since the end of 2020. This suggests that the negative effects on output from recurring waves of COVID-19 have grown weaker and less long-lasting with subsequent outbreaks. Nevertheless, the third wave of the coro¬navirus, and to an even greater degree the previously mentioned roadblocks and disruptions to public order, likely led to a decline in GDP in the second quar¬ter compared to the first. Despite this, data from the monthly economic tracking indicator (ISE) for April and May surpassed expectations, and new sector-level measures of economic activity suggest that the negative impact of the pandemic on output continues to moderate, amid reduced restrictions on mobility and im¬provements in the pace of vaccination programs. Freight transportation registers (June) and unregulated energy demand (July), among other indicators, suggest a significant recovery following the roadblocks in May. Given the above, annual GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to have been around 17.3% (previously 15.8%), explained in large part by a low basis of comparison. The technical staff revised its growth projection for 2021 upward from 6% to 7.5%. This forecast, which comes with an unusually high degree of uncertain¬ty, assumes no additional disruptions to public order and that any new waves of COVID-19 will not have significant additional negative effects on economic activity. Recovery in international demand, price levels for some of Colombia’s export com¬modities, and remittances from workers abroad have all performed better than projected in the previous report. This dynamic is expected to continue to drive recovery in the national income over the rest of the year. Continued ample international liquidity, an acceleration in vacci¬nation programs, and low interest rates can also be ex¬pected to favor economic activity. Improved performance in the second quarter, which led to an upward growth revision for all components of spending, is expected to continue, with the economy returning to 2019 production levels at the end of 2021, earlier than estimated in the April report. This forecast continues to account for the short-term effects on aggregate demand of a tax reform package along the lines of what is currently being pro-posed by the national government. Given the above, the central forecast scenario in this report projects growth in 2021 of 7.5% and in 2022 of 3.1% (Graph 1.1). In this scenar¬io, economic activity would nonetheless remain below potential. The noted improvement in these projections comes with a high degree of uncertainty. Annual inflation increased more than expected in June (3.63%) as a result of changes in food prices, while growth in core inflation (1.87%) was similar to projections. The in¬creased CPI for foods would be expected to persist for the remainder of the year, contributing to inflation remaining above the target. Overall and core inflation would be ex¬pected to return to close to 3% at the end of 2022, amid a deceleration in growth in the CPI for foods and reduced ex¬cess productive capacity. Recent increases in international freight and agricultural goods prices, as well as the live¬stock cycle and increased meat exports, have exerted up¬ward pressure on food prices, primarily in processed foods (see Box 21). In addition to these persistent factors affecting prices, national roadblocks and related disruptions to pub¬lic order in several cities throughout May and parts of June were reflected in a significant restriction of supply and an unexpected annual increase in the CPI for foods (8.52%). Inflation in regulated items (5.93%) also accelerated, due to a low basis of comparison on gasoline prices and the par¬tial lapse of relief measures on utility rates that were put in place in 2020. Inflation excluding food and regulated items recovered in line with projections to 1.87%, due to the rein¬statement of indirect taxes on certain goods and services that had been temporarily eliminated in 2020, and to up¬ward pressures exerted by prices for foods away from home (FAH), among other factors. The increase in perishable foods prices is expected to be reversed over the course of the year, assuming an absence of additional, long-lasting blockades of national roads. Increased processed food pric¬es would be expected to persist and contribute to keeping inflation above the target at the end of the year. Inflation excluding foods and regulated items is expected to contin¬ue to exhibit an upward trend, as excesses in productive ca¬pacity continue to close, and register a temporary increase in March 2022 largely due to the reinstatement of the FAH consumption tax. Given the above, overall year-end infla¬tion is expected to be 4.1% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022 (Graph 1.2), and core inflation is expected to be 2.6% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022 (Graph 1.3). The technical staff has interpreted the overall behavior of prices in the CPI excluding food and regulated items, alongside continued unexpected increases in economic activity, as signs of more ample excess productive capaci¬ty in the economy. This would be expected to persist over the next two years, with the output gap closing at the end of that period. Increased economic growth suggests a less negative output gap than estimated last quarter. Nevertheless, the behavior of core inflation, especially in services, suggests that potential GDP has recovered to an unanticipated degree and that ample excess capacity con¬tinues, with a persistent effect on aggregate demand. La¬bor market observation supports this interpretation, with persistent high levels of unemployment and stagnation in the recovery of jobs lost as a result of the pandemic. Increased inflation can be explained largely by shocks re¬lated to costs and supply, and by the dissolution of some price relief measures put in place in 2020. The growth and inflation forecasts described above would be consistent with a less negative output gap closing more quickly across the forecast horizon compared to the projection from the April report. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding excess capacity is very high and constitutes a risk to the forecast (Graphic 1.4). The fiscal accounts outlook deteriorated, Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) and Fitch Ratings (Fitch) down¬graded Colombia’s credit rating, roadblocks and disrup¬tions to public order affected output, and the country faced a third wave of COVID-19 that was more severe and prolonged than the previous outbreak. These factors were reflected in an increased risk premium and depreciation of the peso compared to the dollar. This occurred in a favor¬able context in regard to foreign income, as international prices for oil, coffee, and other Colombian export goods in¬creased. This contributed to a recovery in the terms of trade and in the national income and mitigated upward pres¬sures on the risk premium and the exchange rate. Expected oil prices in this report are USD 68 per barrel (previous¬ly USD 61/bl) for 2021 and USD 66/bl (previously USD 60/ bl) for 2022. This increased trajectory shows convergence to oil prices below recently observed levels, as a result of increased global supply that would more than offset increased demand. As a result, the recent price increase is expected to be temporary. International financial conditions are expected to become somewhat less fa¬vorable in the current macroeconomic context, despite the improvement in foreign income due to increased demand and some higher prices for oil and other export products. Growth in foreign demand was better than expected in the previous report, with projections for 2021 and 2022 increasing from 5.2% to 6.0% and from 3.4% to 3.5%, respectively. For the year to date, figures for economic activity suggest more dynamic foreign demand than previously expected. Output recovery has been faster in the United States and China than in Latin America, as economic reactivation in the latter has been limit¬ed by outbreaks of COVID-19, restricted vaccine supplies, and a lack of fiscal space to confront the pandemic, among other factors. The positive dynamic in foreign goods trade has come amid a deterioration in value chains and a significant increase in commodities and freight prices (see Box 3). Inflation in the United States has been unexpectedly high, with observed and expected values remaining above the target, while growth forecasts have been revised upward. As a result, the beginning of a normalization in monetary policy in the U.S. could come earlier than previously projected. This report estimates that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate increase will come at the end of 2022 (before the first quarter of 2023). Colombia’s risk premium is projected to be higher than forecast in the April report, and is expected to remain on a growth trajectory given the country’s accumulation of public and external debt. This would be expected to contribute to an increase in international financing costs on the forecast horizon. An expansionary monetary policy stance continues to support favorable do¬mestic financing conditions. The interbank rate and the reference banking indi¬cator (IBR)remained consistent with the policy interest rate in the second quar¬ter. Average deposit and credit rates continued at historical lows, despite some observed increases at the end of June. The peso-denominated credit portfolio continued to decelerate in annual terms and, between March and June, growth in the household credit portfolio accelerated, primarily related to housing pur¬chases. Disbursements and recovery in the commercial credit portfolio were significant, returning to high levels observed one year ago, when businesses required significant levels of liquidity to confront the economic effects of the pandemic. Meanwhile, credit risk increased, liability provisions remained high, and some banks withdrew from the balance of their past-due portfolios. Nev¬ertheless, financial system earnings have recovered, and liquidity and solvency levels remain above regulatory minimums. Beginning with this report, a new methodology will be used to quantify and communicate the uncertainty surrounding central macroeconomic fore¬casts in the context of an active monetary policy. The new methodology, known as predictive densities (PD), will be explained in detail in Box 1. PD methodology provides probability distributions of the main forecast vari¬ables (e.g. growth, inflation) based on the balance of risks of key factors that, in the technical staff’s judgment, could affect the economy on the forecast horizon. These distributions reflect the result of possible shocks (to external variables, prices, and economic activity) that the economy could sustain and the transmission effects considering Colombia’s economic structure and anticipated monetary policy responses. As a result, PD allows for the quantification of uncertainty around the central forecast and of its bias. In this report, the PD exercise shows a downward bias for both economic growth and output gap, while the op¬posite is shown for headline inflation (Graphs 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3). The balance of risks indicates more complex mone¬tary policy dilemmas than previously expected. The most significant anticipated risk regarding external financing would be a return to less favorable conditions in a sce¬nario in which the U.S. Federal Reserve promptly raises interest rates. Such a decision could come as the result of current levels of economic growth and higher-than-ex¬pected employment generating significant inflationary pressures on that country. Uncertainty regarding Colom¬bia’s fiscal outlook and the subsequent effects on the risk premium and external financing costs represent addi¬tional considerations. The risks to economic growth are mainly downside risks, relating especially to the effects of political and fiscal uncertainty on consumption and investment decisions and the potential for additional waves of COVID-19 and the subsequent effects on eco-nomic activity. Inflation risks take into account the po¬tential for more persistent shocks associated with dis¬ruption to value chains, higher international commodity and food prices, and a slower-than-expected recovery in the national agricultural chain as a result of the recent roadblocks. These would represent upward risks primarily to food and goods prices. The main downside risk to the inflation forecast would come from an increase in rental housing prices below the central scenario projection. This would be explained by weak demand and increased sup¬ply in 2022 as a result of high observed housing sales this year. All told, the PD exercise reveals a downward bias for economic growth forecast, with 90% probability of growth between 6.1% and 9.1% for 2021 and between 0.5% and 4.1% in 2022. The output gap also exhibits a downward bias to the central forecast scenario, primarily in 2022. On the contrary, an upward bias is expected for headline inflation forecast, with 90% probability ranging between 3.7% and 4.9% in 2021 and between 2.2% and 4.7% in 2022. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in June and July the BDBR left the bench¬mark interest rate unchanged at 1.75% (Graph 1.5).Box 1. Characterizing and Communicating the Balance of Risks of Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Predictive Densities Approach for Colombia Authors: Juan Camilo Méndez-Vizcaíno, César Ánzola-Bravo, Alexander Guarín y Anderson Grajales-OlarteBox 2. Analysis of Recent Disturbances in Global Logistics Chains and their Impact on Colombian Import Markets. Authors: Aarón Garavito, Juan Diego Cortés, Stefany Andrea Moreno, Alex Fernando Pérez y Juan Esteban CarranzaBox 3. The Upward Dynamics of Food Prices. Authors: Edgar Caicedo G., Andrea Salazar D. y Jesús Daniel Sarmiento S